Chances of winning
Lots of people dream of winning the lottery or getting the ‘perfect’ poker hand, but do you know what the real chances are?
If you toss a coin 40 times, the chance you will get heads every time is just under 1 in 1,000,000,000,000 (one trillion). Keep on reading to see how your odds of winning in games of chance compare to other events.
| Event | Average chance |
|---|---|
| Living to be old enough to receive a 100th birthday telegram from the Queen (or King!) 1 | 1 in 8 |
| Rolling a 2 in a game of craps | 1 in 36 |
| Roulette wheel landing on one number you select | 1 in 37 |
| Winning any prize in the National Lottery ‘Lotto’ | 1 in 57 |
| Being dealt a full house in your first five cards in poker | 1 in 4,165 |
| The next person you meet being born on the same day and same year as you | 1 in 25,000 |
| 20 million tonne asteroid called Apophis hitting Earth on 13 April 2036 2 | 1 in 45,000 |
| Being dealt a royal flush in your first five cards in poker | 1 in 650,000 |
| Being struck by lightning next year | 1 in 10,000,000 |
| Winning a share of the National Lottery ‘Lotto’ jackpot | 1 in 14,000,000 |
1 UK adults in their thirties
2 Probability changes as the potential event gets closer
You can influence the likelihood of some of these things happening. For example, living a healthy lifestyle will increase your chances of living to 100. But all gambling works on randomness. Even skill-based gambling is subject to chance – no amount of expertise or skill can influence the cards you are dealt in a game of poker.
It’s important to be realistic and not to overestimate your chances. Your chance of winning a share in the National Lottery ‘Lotto’ jackpot with one ticket is one in 14 million. If you spend £1 every week on the Lottery, you would expect to wait about 270,000 years before you win a share of the jackpot!
Gambling operators are required to provide customers with information such as the rules, house edge, odds, average return to player, maximum bet level and prize limit. So if you want to know more, ask your gambling provider for further information.